INDIAN OPTION IN AN ESCALATING SINO-US COLD WAR IN THE REGION?
In the geo- strategic environs of our region,certain developments are taking place at a very hectic pace, which has serious implications for the peace and harmony of the South Asian region. In short and precise words, South Asia, South East Asia and Asia Pacific region are soon going to turn into a combat zone for a Cold War between China and USA. From Persian Gulf to South China Sea, proxy soldiers of the two belligerent nations are being lined up to checkmate each other. In this chess game of China and USA, India and Pakistan may emerge as the two front line states, each on the two opposing sides. It would definitely affect the peace and harmony of South Asia.
The tension between China and USA has been growing much beyond the war of words. In May 2016, weeks before President Obama of USA embarked on his visit to Vietnam and Japan, an American Reconnaissance plane in South China Sea was almost intercepted by two Chinese fighter aircrafts, which came within 30 feet of US plane. China does not like US intrusion into South China Sea because it claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Besides it is a known fact that South China Sea bed is rich in hydro- Carbons. Even in 2014 and 2015, US warships in South China Sea have been threateningly confronted by China. Such close encounters, between the two, are bound to create prospects of a military conflict, which would affect the countries of the region.
In order to boost support in the region, both are sewing allies in their prospective military alliances. From the US point of view India is considered a great asset to counter China; while China thinks Pakistan can checkmate India through her so called " Strategic Assets" . Therefore it openly throws weight behind her. Thus, India- Pakistan are caught in a quagmire of Sino- US Cold War with serious implications for peace and harmony of South Asia. Before I go any further, let me highlight some of the important events taking place, concerning India and Pakistan.
Recently, USA has shown a considerable tilt towards India in its Foreign policy. In May 2016, US senate blocked a $ 500 Million military aid to Pakistan, which was aimed to sell eight F-16 aircrafts to Pakistan. With this blockage, $ 700 million deal fell through because Pakistan was unable to send letter of intent by 24 May 2016. Then, USA passed a National Defence Authorization Act ( NDAA) -2017, which sought to provide military aid to India at par with NATO countries. The aim and purpose is to equip India military so as to allow it to stand up to Chinese expansionism in the region.. A report in May 2016, by a US think tank had stated that China was amassing troops on India's borders. It is in this context that the visit of Indian Prime Minister to USA on June 10, 2016 gains significance. While a red carpet welcome is being organized for him, he is also likely to address combined session of US lawmakers. Ceremonies aside, focus is going to be on China.
With India as the pivot, USA is building a military coalition in the South East Asia, and Asia Pacific region so as to contain growing Chinese influence. The countries , who are likely to be in this coalition besides India are Australia, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. In May 2016, US President, Barrack Obama visited Vietnam to renew US - Vietnam relations, severed since late seventies of last Century. First act of President Obama on reaching Vietnam was to lift Arms embargo on Vietnam. With this Vietnam can now acquire sophisticated arms from USA. Thus, from South Korea- Japan through Vietnam and Taipei to India- Australia, USA is trying to build a military coalition to checkmate China's growing expansion in the Asia Pacific region.
What is worrisome for USA is Chinese aggression in mineral rich South China Sea, where it has been going beyond its territorial waters to build airports on man made islands out of coral reef. The countries of the region such as Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have an overlapping claims over South China Sea. More recently, China has built artificial islands with military runways in the South China Sea just 300 miles from the Vietnamese coast. It posts a direct threat to Vietnam. A US report accuses China of acquiring 3200 acres of land in islands in South China Sea for military purposes.
As a counter, USA is fishing for access to Cam Ranh Bay, of Vietnam, where the Vietnamese have built a new international port which was another strategic reason for USA to lift the arms ban. It may be noted that a US presence there would allow US forces to use the port on the western edge of the South China Sea, thus linking up with US facilities in the Philippines on the Eastern edge of South China Sea. This would entail an attempt to checkmate China in the South China Sea. Attempts are also on to enroll Malaysia Brunei and Singapore, who find their territorial waters sovereignty being breached by China through her hegemonist acts in the region.
Now let us look at what China has been trying to do in the region. In Indian military analysis, certain acts of China are seriously unfriendly. They include Chinese support to insurgency in the North East to Maoist movement in the central and South India. China's repeated incursions across the line of Control in Ladakh, also make India uncomfortable. Increased military activities in Tibet and building activities in Nepal do ring alarm bells in India. Besides, China's open support to Pakistan invariably upsets India. It would be foolish to think that India was not concerned about such Chinese activities. It therefore seeks to counter such moves of China. And what better way to do so by aligning with obliging USA.
In July 2015, China signed CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) pact with Pakistan. With this pact China has committed some $46 Billion dollars for the development of Pakistan's tribal Areas falling in Baluchistan and KPK provinces, through which 3000 KM long Karakoram Highway runs from Sinkang (Jinjiang) province of Western China to Pakistan's warm water port at Gawador on the Persian Gulf. This has provided a much needed access to sea routes, near oil rich region, to China for her commercial activities.
Gawador port provides China an alternative route for her petroleum needs. It is important to note that, so far, 82% of China's oil needs and 25% of its Liquified Natural Gas requirements were carried from Persian Gulf through the sea routes, passing through Malacca Strait and South China Sea. The sea routes can be choked and thus not only derail Chinese economy but also affect its military capabilities. Therefore, Gawador port in the Gulf of Oman, near the Middle East oil rich region, attains significance because it provides a safe land route to China through Karakoram Highway. In May 2016, while visiting China, Pakistan Army's chief , General Raheel Sharief, assured China that Pakistan military would protect Chinese interests in this corridor at all costs. He also promised to raise a force of 3000 men to protect this corridor. It is estimated some 17000 Pakistan's military troops are currently guarding Chinese engineers and workers in Pakistan. It may also be noted that there had been reports of the presence of 10,000 to 15000 Chinese troops in the Gilgit- Hunza area of Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan sees this intimate Sino- Pakistan relationship as a counter weight to India's growing military power in the region. In fact, both Pakistan and China, are using each other to checkmate India. Over the last few years, China has been bullying India by intruding troops into Indian territory in Ladakh. India responded with much restraint because it is still struggling to acquire a military punch vis- a- vis China. Thus, deliberate intrusion into Indian territory, repeatedly, almost at will, was not only to browbeat Indian military and amuse Pakistan Army but also to divert Indian attention from growing military activities of China in the Karakoram- Highway Corridor.
Come what may, China considers India as a major stumbling block in her race to global supremacy. In Spite of all the theatrics of peace and harmony between India and China, there are conflicting economic, political, military and strategical interests of the two Asian Giants. Militarily and economically, China has taken a march ahead of India and it can never accept Indian equality. There are historical reasons too for this Chinese hostility towards India. Dalai Lama and Tibet are key pillars of this hostility. It is this reason which will never diminish trust -deficit in Sino - Indian relations. Even India can not accept Chinese hand of friendship as true after what happened in 1962.
What must be noted is the fact that China is using Pakistan to contain India. Therefore, besides, Pakistan Military, it is China , too, who would not allow friendly relations between India and Pakistan. In order to keep Pakistan Military amused , China has made deft move to block India's membership of Nuclear Supplier Group ( NSG). What was more pleasing to Pakistan military was use of veto power by China in the UN Security Council, to stop declaration of Azhar Masood of Pakistan, head of Jamait-ur-dawa,(JuD) as a wanted international terrorist. India accuses him as a mastermind behind Mumbai 26/11 and Pathankot Air Base (2/1/2016) attacks. Despite foolproof evidences, Pakistan does not relent and China goes out to support Pakistan's viewpoint in UN Security Council. This certainly. Is not a friendly act towards India.
Truly speaking, given the geo- strategic, political, economic and ideological differences, India and China can not trust each other. This also seeds the mutual animosity between the two, though apparent thaw in their relationship since 1962. China, along with laying claims to Arunachal Pradesh of India in the East, has been in occupation of approximately , some 42600/- square KMs of Indian Territory in the Aksai Chin region of Jammu and Kashmir state of India. This also includes 5180 square KMs ceded by Pakistan to China since 1960s. In addition, it's string of pearls policy around the Indian Ocean aims at encirclement of India. Add to it China's open abuse of LC in Ladakh over the last few years. It should leave no doubts in the minds of Defence planners as to what entails danger to national security in the future.
While animosity with China seems to be a permanent affair,at least in the near future, often lapsing into "Blow Hot- Blow Cold"scenarios.,it would be pertinent to understand long term and short term options of India. In the long term option of dealing with China,, it is mandatory that India must counter China on her own mettle. To do so , it has to rapidly upgrade and strengthen her military muscles.
Besides, it has to ensure that her neighborhood is sanitized of Chinese influence. India must know that China has no inhibition of not only containing India but also breaking it up into 20-30 states. In an article in 2009, in an online Magazine, Global Times, Official Chinese mouth piece, author had recommended India's breakup. China has been pursuing this objective since then. It is evident from Chinese act of fuelling insurgencies not only in North East India. but also supporting Maoist/ Naxalite movement. Further, It wants to use Pakistan, Srilanka, Nepal and Bangladesh Desh as the pivots of this strategy.
Therefore, India must create viable military options against her such belligerent neighbors. This is where signing in May 2016 of an Indo- Iran deal on development of Chabahar Port in South Eastern Iran, some 100 Miles West of Gwador port, at the cost of $ 500 Million attains importance. Connected to this deal is construction of a 900 KMs long railway line, at a cost of another $400 Million , from Chabahar to Zeheden on the Afghanistan border, which will provide alternative military option to India in Afghanistan to tell Pakistan as to what can happen in KPK and Balochistan, if it does not stops its fueling militant movements in India.
To checkmate aggressive designs of China, India, besides developing its own military muscles, ought to counter Sino-Pakistan nexus by creating other military options for herself. Therefore , in the short term scenario, India has to use US umbrella to upset Chinese military advantages. Also, it has to stitch up a mutual defence pact with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and USA to checkmate China. Whether India likes it or not, it is a compulsion of present times for India to get drawn into the ongoing Cold War between China and USA. And India is going to play a major role in this battle. All the same, India must take full advantage of visible tilt in US foreign policy from Pakistan to India. Strategic relations with Iran and Afghanistan must be further strengthened to engage Pakistan on her Western borders. There should be no qualms about it. National security and defence can not be a hostage of moral baggage of the past.
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