WHEN THE STORM BLEW AWAY-5(WOM-1)

Jaipur blasts incident of May 2008, is the symbol of a malaise which afflicts the nation but it has been refusing to accept since 1988. This began in the aftermath of an Exercise 'ZARB-E-MOMIN' ( STRIKE OF THE PURE) by late General Zia-ul-haque of Pakistan. This was an exercise to test his concept of strategic depth for Pakistan by extending the war into Indian borders by covert means and extend her Western borders by making 'Afghanistan a Surrogate'.
With this he had launched WOM ---WAR BY OTHER MEANS on India. But no one till date in India accepts this as war---from Indian public, misled by peacemakers to political leaders through military leadership----who thinks militancy is not their job. Everyone is confused and therefore a cohesive response to DESIGNER WAR LAUNCHED ON INDIA by PAKISTAN military since 1988, is lacking. Army wants to prepare for the actual war and want this job of internal security to be assigned to some one else.They are confused by their stratified thinking.
In real terms, there was nothing known as 'internal or external security'--it is only 'National Security'. Such divisions are only academic definitions. WHICH IS THE OTHER 'ACTUAL WAR' ARMY IS WANTING TO PREPARE AND FIGHT, IF INDIA WOULD LOSE THE CURRENT WAR? WHAT GOOD WILL BE ALL THOSE BOFORS and T-92 or 'ARJUNS' Tanks if India breaks up a LA-SOVIET. How? Let me give you an account of what has the war become? If need be, I will come back with analysis of SOUTH ASIA in the next instalment.
Forget, my friend, this IPL tamasha! IF YOU ADD SUGAR TO POISON IT DOES NOT BECOME SWEET DISH---Pakistan remains what it was in 1948 or 1965 or 1971/72 or 1999 or 2001--Agenda of 1947 is deeply entrenched into their minds, To this agenda, is added the humiliation of 1971 and the frustration of 1999. Unfortunately, PAKISTAN had understood the modern nuances of 'WOM'earlier and faster than us.

Rapid progress in Nano-technology, space research, robotics, computers, genetic engineering, chemical, physical and biological sciences have revolutionized communications and energized the weapon systems, whose synergistic impact questioned the old form of war and war – making. Everything from philosophy to doctrines; tactics to strategy; battlefield- fronts to battlefield- rears; combat soldiers to non-combat operators, there is a virtual shift from old form of war. Enhanced ranges, deadly lethality and perfect accuracy describe the modern world arsenal. Smart ammunition, with their mid-course and terminal guidance, has made the old dud-ammunition look ridiculous. There is a fusion of the battlefield and the rear areas, leading to extended frontiers, of war but sychronised and integrated fronts.
Now look at the other side of the coin. Nuclear devices, Ethno- bombs and chemical agents spell as much danger to the white-collared gentlemen in the rear as to the men donned in greens on the front, implying there is no shield from their deadly effect for any one. In a given geographical area, users may suffer as much damage as the target. Consequences of a nuclear conflagration are un-imaginable. World is now getting to the view that there are no winners in a nuclear war. Theories are being advanced which speak of war by other means (WOM) at the regional and local levels. Implicit in the WOM theory of war is a fact, where war is no more merely seen as a ‘Bull-Fight’ of the two opposing armies in the ringed arena of national borders. It is the military truism for the first few decades of the third millennium. Also, alluded to it is a corollary that future war would no more remain the sole domain of soldiers in olive green (OG). There are soldiers of different hue and cry who would play more vital role than the conventional soldiers.
Think of ‘Smart Solders’ (Computer boys, scientists and technicians); Irregular Soldiers’ of private armies call them terrorists, militants, insurgents, fifth columnists-what have you; ‘Cyber-Soldiers’ info-manipulators, software experts, spin doctors and media barons and defence analysts. Thus, the conventional soldiers have their roles considerably reduced. This is the reason most armies of the world have been cutting their flab. The trend is for lean and thin armies of quality for a future envisaged role rather than heavy weight armies of quantity and numbers. All this owes itself to the changing nature and form of war.


In the functional form, the war in the Twenty First Century is being viewed as a synchronised module of three acts- stage play rather than here-to-fore known one act-play of uniformed soldiers monkey-dancing across the borders. This monkey dancing has been relegated to the last act of the synchronised module, which neither may nor may not be necessary. Postulating his theory on the ‘Brain-Force-wars’ of the third wave civilization in the Twenty-First-Century, Alvin Toffler paraphrases them as ‘Niche wars’ or the ‘Designer wars’. Invite you to read his book, "WAR AND ANTI WAR". The first two acts of these Designer wars are more important than the third act because of their low costs. The first act is of ‘Info War’- a constant dia-tribe against the potential adversary to show him in the poor light. Information will be controlled, manipulated, twisted and distorted to show the adversary as the mother of all wordly evils-a ‘rogue state’ which ought to be punished. Remember Saddam Hussein of Iraq in 2001.
Cyber- soldiers and the Spin doctors have a tailor- made role to emotionally agitate the world public opinion. Electronic and print media is the stage (Read Battlefield) on which this show is enacted. Near authentic visual clips and in-person detail of gory tales of woes are planted in the media to hypnotise the targeted audience. World will; be shown what is intended to be shown. Visibly disgusting; apparently shocking and morally unbelieveable episodes, spun out of the fertile but imaginative minds of Spin doctors, will rake the moral consciousness of even the alleged accused. It is part of history now as to how the young daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to USA in 1990 was doctored to narrate to the US senate an imaginary tale of rape and molestation by Iraqi soldiers. The whole world cried action against Iraq.

The second act of the Designer-War-module is the ‘Bleeding and Squeezing’ show. It may follow two courses, either concurrently together or separately or even singly. The first course could follow aggressive ‘Economic-War’ in the form of trade embargo’ choking off development funds or levying economic sanctions. The second course would be to initiate covertly a ‘Bleeding War’ to destabilise or even balkanize the adversary. National vulnerabilities of the adversary in the form of ethnic and racial cleavages, religious divisions; regional dissimilarities, lingual heterogeneity; economic imbalances and the cultural-chasm would be exploited to create a condition of anarchy and chaos. Separatists movements will be encouraged.

The final act of the ‘Designer war’ is the quick surgical operation, using both smart-soldiers and conventional soldiers to inflict ultimate unacceptable damage to force the adversary to capitulate. This act, may or may not be enacted if ‘Act-one and ‘Act-Two have already produced the desired results. The 100 hours ground battle in the Gulf War was the culmination point of this nature of the ‘Designer-War’. ‘Act-Two’ was partially enacted as ‘Act-One’ had produced a very favourable world opinion for a quick surgical operation. The promised mother of all battles of Saddam Hussein turned out to be a damp squib. On one side was the high-tech army of Third Wave civilization which was lean and efficient. On the other side was a low-tech army of Second wave- civilization which was all flab and human mass. It was the brain versus the brawn or the quality versus the quantity. The brain won, the brawn disintegrated.

But imagine a condition where technological parity existed. Say, the erstwhile Soviet Union and the USA; was the third act of the designer war possible? It would not have been allowed by the world body as it had allowed in the case of Iraq. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union the geo-strategic environments have undergone a change. As the 20th Century came to a close, USA was the only ‘Ring Master’ in the world 'Circus of Nations'. It enjoys the freedom of action which no other nation does. It manipulates its freedom of action as it did in the case of IRAQ. Accusing SADDAM HUSSEIN of possessing WMD(Weapons Of Mass Destruction), it moulded the world public nation and destabilised a harmonious and stable IRAQ. Therefore, except the world ‘Ring-Master’ no other nation enjoys the freedom of pursuing its national interests across the borders. Perhaps the votaries of hot pursuit in India ought to understand this.
It would be apparent now that the Designer War aims at graduated escalation of conflict. Though each act of the module is aimed at virtual capitulation of the likely adversary, yet the real capitulation will come through second or third act. Thus, in all situations, the introductory act is a pre-requisite, where battlefield is the world media. But in most cases, either the second or the third act may be omitted. The omission or non-omission is subject to the non-availability of time to wage a protracted ‘Bleeding War’; degree of success achieved in the introductory act and finally the existing technological parity or disparity. If there was near parity in the technological quality of available weapon systems, then third act definitely will not be enacted. In such a case the Designer war may be kept limited only to the Bleeding war phase.
If there was total disparity the Bleeding War phase may only be partially enacted or totally omitted. Also, the success of introductory act is directly related to the third condition of technological parity or disparity. In the age of manifold lethality of nuclear weapons, the last thing the world wants to see is a world wide nuclear conflagration, where there will be no winners. All the same the basic reasons behind NPT (Non-proliferation Treaty) or the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban-Treaty) is not to rid the world of such deadly arsenal of mass-destruction but to allow Nuclear-Heaves a clear monopoly and a basic edge in the ‘Designer-War’ of the future. Albeit unsaid, implicit in these treaties is a clumsy attempt to keep the world unipolar and prevent it from becoming multy-polar.
The theorists of the Designer War in USA had clearly foreseen its implications in the mid-eighties and set upon to fool the world through NPT and START (Strategic arms reductions talks). They insisted on Non-proliferation but not on total destruction or total disarmament. In any case, in the world of today, to talk of total destruction and total disarmament is to fool you. We must know the knowledge and expertise to produce these weapons exists and will be safe-deposited. Therefore, what is the guarantee that they can not be assembled again even if total disarmament was carried out?
All the same, in a way, the availability of nuclear weapons have made the wars of active and naked-aggression, as in the case of Hitler’s war, a totally redundant phenomenon. Come what may, nuclear weapons have come to stablise outward peace in the world. Clandestinely and covertly, nations after nations, yearn for this capability to reduce the threat of naked aggression. If they do not, they will be subjected to a similar humiliation as was Iraq of Saddam Hussein. Whether the five nations of The Nuclear Club accept or do not accept the nuclear-status of the new member, it is immaterial. The fact remains the new member will have a proportionate deterrence to discourage naked aggression.
Thus, as the ‘Nuclar-Haves-Club’ enlarges itself, ‘Active and direct wars’ will be replaced by ‘Bleeding Wars’, where there will be no monkey-dancing across the borders. But a sole thrust will be on exploiting sensitive vulnerabilities deep inside the enemy territory. ‘Fronts’ and ‘Rears’ of the battlefield, as known to mankind, will soon disappear. The condition of ‘ugly-peace’ or ‘ugly-stability’ brought about by proliferating nuclear weapons, will make Bleeding war the only tool of Clavsewitzian concept of war as the other extension of political ambition of a nation. Bleeding War is going to be the order of the day in the first and second or even third decade of the Twenty First Century. Nations after nations are going to fall prey for it. Emphasis will shift to war by other means or WOM and Bleeding Wars will be the results. Internal vulnerabilities of nations will provide adequate spark for ignition by interested adversaries and become the battleground of this new war. Jaipur is the link in this chain.