DIGITALISING HUMAN BEING !

DIGITALIZED MAN --WHERE DO WE STAND?

We have come a long way in human history when man can live in a VIRTUAL WORLD. Human DNA has been mapped. BOSTORM, Director of Future Of Humanity, at Oxford, talks of a SIMULATED WORLD. How would it be? Let us have first view of this. This artile is by ABHILASH KUSHWAHA ,posted on his blog :
www. abhikush.blogsot.com The link is: http://abhikush.blogspot.com/2007/01/new-cosmopolitan-man.html
I can only say that with the advances in DNA MAPPING and DIGITALISATION OF HUMAN LIFE ,one could also think of RECYCLING one's life through his robotised duplicate or the clone. MAN WOULD BE REINCARNATING HIMSELF. REBIRTH WILL NOT BE A MYTH, THEN. Isn't it? This is a revolutionary concept. This article gives the time frame when technologically man could think of digitalising himself and his life. Read on . If you have any querry kindly post the question to him on his blog.


The New Cosmopolitan Man

In this article David Vekslar debunks many predictions and advances some of his own. I particularly found the following interesting: "The New Cosmopolitan Man"

A number of researchers are working on video cameras integrated into clothing or eye-ware that can record a 24/7 video stream from the wearer's perspective. They predict that an entire lifetime of such recordings will be able to fit into a small device within 10 years. When this technology is combined with GPS and computervision software and cross-referenced with our contact lists and email, a complete digital record can be created to supplement our memories. Imagine being able to search for and review anything experienced during your
digitally-enhanced life.
The building blocks are already in place — my Google accounts make every email, chat, and web search of the last three years instantly searchable and available. My Flickr account serves as a geographically tagged diary of my life. A tiny device records all my bike rides and sends a map tagged with my performance statistics to mycomputer.
The sum of all these innovations will gradually change the way we define ourselves. Our consciousness becomes the central processing unit of a complex system, with external storage and sensor facilities spread across the world and to other people. As human-computer interfaces improve, our sense of self will evolve to include our digital memories as well as those of others. Initially, people had to talk to each other to share information. Then they could look it up in a book. Now you can search for it in Wikipedia. Imagine when you willbe able to instantly look it up as an extension of a thought process using some successor to web services.
Thanks to globalization, such tools for sharing knowledge and experience will be available worldwide. It will not be a "hive-mind" (another common sci-fi scenario) because our own sense of self will be enhanced in parallel with our connections to others. A revolutionary concept particularly "They predict that an entire lifetime of such recordings will be able to fit into a small device within 10 years." Can this be possible?
I recently recorded some moments of my Hawaii trip with Sony Mini DV. While transferring it to my computer using a USB cable Windows Media Maker said it will take 5 MB to record a minute of recording. The quality was good enough to be shared through you tube. However, I would like to store my digital life in DVD quality i.e. 4 GB for 100 mins (using firewire and a good software) or 40 MB for 1 min. What the heck? Let's make it 50 MB / min.

Let us assume an average age of 75 years or 75*365*24*60 = 39420000 mins
Total storage at 5 MB / min (you tube quality)
197100000 MB or 197100 GB or 197.1 TB
Total storage at 50 MB / min (you tube quality)
1971000000 MB or 1971000 GB or 1971 TB

The current capacity of external hard disk available on market will soon be 1 TB. According to Moore's law for hard disk (Kryder's law) the hard disk capacity should increase by 1000 times every 10 years. Therefore, in 10 years we could have a 1000TB drive.
Applying Moore's law capacity will double every 18 months i.e. will increase 1000 times in 15 years. However, Kryder's law may not be true and infact Moore's law which equates to a 54% per annum increase would also be in doubt. The article states "Drives have failed to meet the 54% level for the last 3 years and they are also not expected to meet it for the next 3 years".
The article analyzes trends for annual "sweet spot" (in demand storage drive) capacity increases. Assuming similar trend for high end capacity increases we get the following picture:-

THIRTEEN years average increase is 105% per annum ==> 1000 TB reached between 9 & 10 years. However, last 2 years growth has been 29%. Assuming that the growth does not slow further then this is what will happen?

At 29% growth time to reach 197 TB (you tube quality) --> 20 to 21 years from 1st half of 2006.
At 29% growth time to reach 1971 TB (DVD quality) --> 30 to 31 years from 1st half of 2006.
And this is the time when the capacity will be 1st available. If you consider "sweet spot" (drive commonly available for public) then the results are:-

At 29% growth time to reach 197 TB (you tube quality) --> 20 to 21 years from 1st half of 2012.
At 29% growth time to reach 1971 TB (DVD quality) --> 30 to 31 years from 1st half of 2012.

Assuming that people will not start recording until they are sure they can store their entire life; the first recordings on a you tube quality video will begin between 2026 and 2027. It may not catch on with general public between 2032 and 2033.

Digital life in DVD quality will begin between 2036 and 2037 with general public starting between 2042 and 2043.NOTE: I have just analyzed the capacity to record the data. I haven't factored how long it will take to make a camera which you can wear all day long. And transfer it to the storage device. Hopefully, one should be available by the time the storage capacity becomes available.Moreover, this analysis is for entire lives. People could actually start earlier and keep migrating data as moreand more storage becomes available but then that would depend on how soon the technology (camera) is available.
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Posted by abhikush at 4:46 PM on his Blog: www. ABHIKUSH.BLOGSPOT.COM
Labels: Technology .Link is : http://abhikush.blogspot.com/2007/01/new-cosmopolitan-man.html