DECIPHERING CHINA's INDIA STRATEGY AND IN DIAN RESPONSE !

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http://www.dsalert.org/dialogue/2014/11/deciphering-chinas-india-strategy-and-indian-response/

Above analysis by CIA as to how China befooled the Indian leadership prior to 1962 War is a clear cut testimony of China’s longstanding dislike of India. Come what may, it would never consider India a friend but a competitor, who can put spokes in the wheel of China’s global ambitions. Some recent actions of China with respect to India must not surprise defence planners in India. They ought to know that China can never be India’s friend in the true sense of the meaning of the word “Friendship”. Her overt gestures of friendship and peace are basically deceptive acts to hide her real intentions. China’s aggressive posture towards India and her hectic activities of rail-road construction in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) along with positioning of its troops in the FCNA of Pakistan, some two years back, do not hide her future intentions about India. PLA (Chinese Army) recent forays over the last few months into Indian side of the Line of Control in Ladakh, do not exhibit any signs of real friendship.

China, in 1962 and a little prior to this, had annexed approximately 38,000 sq km of Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir. Besides, in an agreement reached with China in 1963, Pakistan had ceded 5,180 sq km J&K territory in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to China. China claims approximately 90,000 sq km of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh and about 2,000 sq km in the Middle Sector of the India-China boundary. China has often asserted that it does not recognise Arunachal Pradesh. There are, thus, serious fault lines in Sino-Indian relations which do not make them “genuine friends”, despite overtures of visible friendship by China, whether it was a recent warm handshake between Indian and Chinese Prime Ministers in Australia, during G-20 Meet in November 2014 or Chinese Strongman and President Xi Jinping’s much hyped visit to India in September 2014.

Before we go crystal gazing any further, let us see some of the recent acts of China:

(a) Though there have been reports of the presence of Chinese around 10,000 troops in POK for some time but their purpose was not known. It has now become clear that they were not there merely for maintenance and construction of roads but for a strategic design. It has been reported by the intelligence agencies and there are also press reports that China has been training Pakistani troops along the Line of Control in POK. Is it an act of Friendship?

(b) On April 15, 2013, some 50 PLA troops intruded into Indian territory, up to 19 km in Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) Sector of Ladakh and established a tented camp. Thereafter PLA has flexed its muscles two to three times in the same place. Aggressive posture by PLA was aimed at sizing up India’s military prowess and its ability to question China. Are they friendly acts?

(c) A nuclear Submarine from China had recently anchored at a Sri Lankan port as part of its much claimed “String of Pearls” policy. Its ‘string of pearls’ spreads from Gwador in Pakistan through Hambantota in Sri Lanka to Myanmar. Besides, China had been busy in making forays into South Asia around India.

(d) For some years, China has been issuing Stappled Visas to Kashmiris, thus questioning its accession to India. Besides, it is in occupation of some 43,180 sq km of Indian territory in J&K.

(e) China has been slowly and steadily cozying up to India’s neighbours and making them hostile towards India. Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar have fallen into her pocket and now Bangladesh too, is being won over.

(f) In the past, China is known to have provided arms support and moral support to India’s separatists from the Northeast states. Naga hostiles and ULFA hostiles have been provided safe sanctuaries in China. Now Maoists and Naxalites have also been provided material support and training.

China has been covertly conducting ‘Cyber Warfare’ against India, aimed at affecting the command and control systems by virus attack on Indian official computers, either to make them dysfunctional or hack them to extract vital information. Towards this end, China has recently demonstrated her capability to shoot a satellite, which can cripple command and control systems based on satellite communications.

Also, China has been carrying out a clandestine trade war to capture markets frequented by Indian goods – like the Nigerian Malaria drug incident, where spurious medicines were being sold under brand name India. We all know that some months back, China had tried to block aid to Arunachal Pradesh from Asian Development Bank.

A Chinese defence strategist, Zhong Guo Zhan Lue Gang wrote an article, published in Chinese language on the Internet, on August 08, 2009. Though the article was meant for domestic consumption of China but it was linked to Chinese International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Therefore, it could not be ignored that it was not China’s official thinking. The article was later deleted from the website. The main thrust of the article was to break up India into 20-30 states. To do so, it advocated usage of hostile neighbours such as Pakistan and Maoist Nepal and cultivation of other countries around India.

Therefore one ought to understand that China has been steadily pursuing a policy of not only containing India both economically and militarily but break it up through internal implosion, being fused through an “Outsourced” WOM (War by Other Means) to Pakistan. Thus, China’s overall military strategy against India has been four pronged:

(a) Contain and isolate India by making her neighbours hostile and unfriendly.

(b) Outsource its low cost proxy war to Pakistan and Maoists / Naxalites by:

(i) Supporting and encouraging internal insurgencies brewing in India and thus break-up India through implosion.

(ii) Using Pakistan to the maximum to retard India’s military and economic growth.

(c) Dominate sea-lanes around India through a ‘String of Pearls’ policy.

(d) Befool Indian leadership and Indian public through overt goodwill gestures in the interregnum.

While dealing with China, India cannot lower its guard towards Pakistan. It is going to play “China game”, no matter what India does to mitigate her grievances. Pakistan is unreliable and India must NOT fall into “Peace Talks” trap of Pakistan. Instead, it should prepare grounds to engage her in Balochistan and KPK (KHYBER PAKHTOONKHWA) provinces. Time for open support to Pakhtoons, as does Pakistan in Kashmir. Show it to Pakistan that it has its own vulnerabilities in Karachi, Sindh and Tribal region of Waziristan. Pakistan is China’s main weapon against India. It is going to provide her all help, other than physical intervention in a military conflict.

Time to tell China that its Achilles heel lay in autonomous regions of Tibet and Outer Mangolia. Besides, UIGHAR Muslims of erstwhile East Turkistan or the Xinxiang province of China are as good a game as are the Kashmiri Muslims. Mainland China, too has serious economic and social problems. Democratic movement might have been checked but its simmering. The flames could rise any day if fuel is added. China’s neighbours like Vietnam, Taiwan and ASEAN nations are also not comfortable with China. They need a shoulder to rest and India can provide this shoulder, once it is clear to its Political leadership the significance of its “Look East Policy.”

In conclusion, one would only say that India has to develop a counter strategy which would effectively deal with all the four ingredients of China’s India strategy. Priority must be given to home made insurgencies, such as Maoists and J&K Militancies. India must develop strategic and military partnerships with Australia, Japan and Vietnam. It ought to cozy up to ASEAN states besides mollifying its Eastern and Southern neighbours. Pakistan must be kept at bay in KPK and Balochistan.