QCCM (Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism on Counter Terrorism by China , Pakistan , Afghanistan and Tajakistan) --- A THREAT TO INDIAN INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN
While Indian political parties, both ruling and opposition, were drum beating about merits of GST (Good and Services Tax) and the world was focussed on Rio Olympic Games; Pakistan and China have played a master stroke in Afghanistan. On 03 August 2016, in Uramqui, a Chinese city of XinJiang province, Army Chiefs of four nations met to sign a Quadrilateral Cooperation And Coordination treaty on Counter Terrorism.(QCCM). The four countries are: China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajakistan. Whatever its openly pronounced objectives by China and Pakistan, it is a smart move by them to wean away Afghanistan from Indian influence and thus marginalise India in Afghanistan. This is a back door method used by Pakistan. Of ourse, China is making all out efforts to Isolate India by such pacts.
To understand the significance of this four nation pact, we got to have a look around Afghanistan and the regional geography. Afghanistan is hemmed in by Iran on the West; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the North; POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) in the North East and Pakistan on the South and South East. Roping in Tajikistan in this pact is to insulate Afghanistan from the North East and deny entry to other players from North East. India has no significant ties with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Geography of Afghanistan is such that India has no direct access to it. To enter Afghanistan, India has to go through her neighbors in the West( Iran) and her neighbors in the North. With Tajikistan, enticed into QCCM, only countries left are Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Therefore, it is time for India to develop some good relations with these two former Soviet states. In fact, Uzbeks are a targeted minority by Taliban in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan has solid interest in Uighur Muslim insurgency in the Xinjiang province of China. Xinjiang is also called Eastern Turkmenistan.
What is more significant is that mineral rich Baluchistan adjoins Afghanistan in the South East and this is where much talked about Gawador port is there, where China has taken control to develop an international har our. China has taken upon itself to spend $ 46 billion to develop an economic corridor of 3000 KMs , called CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). It goes without saying that herein lay the strategic and economic interests of China. Further, 300 miles East of Gawador, lay the Chabahar port of Iran, whereby India has signed a deal with Iran and Afghanistan to develop the port and the oil pipe line from Iran. QCCM agreement is to fracture this deal and keep India away.
Surprisingly, while Afghanistan blames Pakistan for all terrorist activities in Afghanistan; it is not understood as to how Afghan National Army Chief, General Qadam Shamimi Shah got into a pact with Pakistan on Counter Terrorism? Does she think that Pakistan will stop Haqqani Network operations in Afghanistan? The purpose of this pact is to covertly wean away Afghanistan from India's influence and establish a Pakistan friendly government in Afghanistan. May be some kind of a military coup be orchestrated later!.
This ought to be a serious concern to Indian defence planners, who must evaluate its impact on India's national Interests. Primary aim of Pakistan is to bring Afghanistan under its wings and remove threat-in-being from Afghanistan, which can throw into doldrums its Kashmir action plan. It has been desperately trying for a re- entry into Afghan military space and it has made an attempt through QCCM. It would, thus, deny a strategic launch pad to India and curtail its military maneuverability.
QCCM pact will throw Indo-Iran Chabahar port deal into jeopardy. This is the monster in this deal for India. In the long run, if India gets out of Chabahar, the oil flow to India would be restricted with serious military and strategic implications for India. May be, this speaks of an urgency for India to start thinking about a stronger navy, capable of safeguarding its interests in the Arabian Sea. However, not only media but even our politicians and soldiers do not realise as to how seriously it affects India's national interests. This is also a threat to Ashgar Ghani Presidency in Afghanistan. At some stage, Afghan National Army will be infiltrated and rest can be anticipated in terms of attempt for military coup to install a favourable regime.
These are such desperate measures by Pakistan to marginalize India in Afghanistan. Ilhan Niaz, a noted Pakistani scholar and a professor of History at Quaid-i-Azam University, made it clear for everyone to know that Pakistan can not afford to have a hostile Afghanistan. In his article in a Pakistani Daily, The Dawn, of December 13, 2009, he wrote:
"---------For Pakistan there can be no exit strategy from the Afghan quagmire. The double policy to the extent it could be sustained meant that no matter who won in Afghanistan Pakistan could claim to have helped the winning side---"
The 'double policy' he talked about was for USA/NATO on one side and 'Afghan Taliban' (Supported by Pakistan) on the other. Both are on the different ends of a fulcrum which Pakistan wants to be. It is akin to riding two boats. As long as it was a 'stunt' in the stormy waters of a river called Afghanistan, it was fine. But it could not last for ever. Once the "geostrategic 'current' became a 'rapid', the "stuntman" lost the balance. USA , today has its eyes focused on China. It no more sees Pakistan as a strategic partner. US focus is on South China Sea, where China is flexing its muscles. Thus orphaned Pakistan has fallen into the laps of China, who is exploiting her for own global objectives and interests. Pakistan can do anything which gives her control of Afghanistan, even at peril to her own interests- an emotional obsession of a nation gone crazy.
General Kiyani, former Chief of Pakistan Army, had once categorically stated that in any future dispensation for Afghanistan, Pakistan does not want any role for India. Pakistan had then advocated a patch up between USA and 'Good Afghan Taliban" so as to allow USA/ NATO to peacefully execute exit policy. But Pakistan played a double game hunting with the hound and running with the hare. Finally, USA priorities shifted to China, who was influencing Pakistan. USA understood and realised the pitfall of ignoring this double game of Pakistan and it has now tilted towards India. USA has openly stated that it would continue its presence in Afghanistan till 2020. The primary reason is Chinese presence in Balichistan and Gwador. This provides India ample opportunities to dig deep in Afghanistan.
Why does Pakistan want India to be excluded. Answer is very simple. As stated earlier, Indian presence in Afghanistan denies the very STRATEGIC DEPTH Pakistan seeks in a pliable Afghanistan. It therefore curtails its advantage of 'nuclear blackmail' of India in a conventional war. Its Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) nuclear strategy to use smaller yield nuclear weapons against Conventional Indian force has an inherent flaw that it would invite a full scale Indian nuclear response. General's of Pakistan Army think they can seek sanctuaries in Afghanistan in such an eventuality. This is why pliable regime in Afghanistan is very crucial in their scheme of things.
Further, the rugged and mountainous terrain of Afghanistan provides not only training grounds for the so called "STRATEGIC ASSETS" of Pakistan but they can be also kept outside the striking range of India both by air and ground operation. Pre-9/11, Pakistan had used Afghanistan for training Kashmiri militants. Unfortunately for Pakistan 9/11 turned tables on them.
Besides, Indian presence in Afghanistan provides India an opportunity to play similar dirty games in Waziristan, Swat, FATA and Baluchistan as does Pakistan in Indian Kashmir, Punjab and North East. These are her basic fears because it would not be able to use her strategic asset effectively. The cries about RAW are getting loud in Pakistani Media while they think ISI activities are legitimate . Has anyone told them that TIT FOR TAT is the known principle between two enemies. Pakistan knows that it would pay for its " Kashmir - Irrationality" if India digs into Afghanistan. Pakistani public too, does not realize that 2016 is not 1947; a lot of water has flown through Indus River since. Reality of 2016 does not dawn upon most Pakistanis. They continue to believe their selfish Generals. Prime Minister Narender Modi's reminder to Pakistan on 15 August 2016, from the ramparts of Red Fort is a warning which Pakistan must realize that WOM can be two way traffic, too.
Where does China fit in? It too does not want India anywhere near Afghanistan. The reasons are many. Pakistan portion of Balochistan is rich in oil and natural gas and also in mineral deposits such as Iron Ore, Coal, Gold, Copper, Zinc. QCCM would keep India away it will provide access to China to this mineral wealth. Most commentators think that other than access to warm water Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, China is interested in the rich mineral deposits which it can exploit once it gets her foot in. This is why CPEC .
CPEC agreement allows China to control the oil trade from Persian Gulf countries to rest of the world. Thus, it would become a great player in the region. Flow of oil and its regulation through Gawador port would affect many a world economies, particularly Asia and Africa. Besides, It cuts down a distance of over 12000 Kms for its oil tankers through Indian Ocean and various choke points on the sea lanes. In return , China has offered only three power plants which run with outmoded coal technology. The development of Gwador port is for its own benefit. Pakistan will be spending a huge amount for the protection of this corridor. It is a win win situation for China. Any interference here by India through her presence in Afghanistan, would affect her future designs of world domination.
It must be noted that 10-15000troops of China are already in Gilgit Hunza area under this agreement. In real terms Pakistan is handing over sovereignty of Baluchistan to China. This is also a major resentment of the local people. Military presence of China in GILGIT- HUNZA region, threatens, Ladakh in a double Chinese pincer to slice of Ladakh. India has to thus tie down China in Baluchistan.
"---------For Pakistan there can be no exit strategy from the Afghan quagmire. The double policy to the extent it could be sustained meant that no matter who won in Afghanistan Pakistan could claim to have helped the winning side---"
The 'double policy' he talked about was for USA/NATO on one side and 'Afghan Taliban' (Supported by Pakistan) on the other. Both are on the different ends of a fulcrum which Pakistan wants to be. It is akin to riding two boats. As long as it was a 'stunt' in the stormy waters of a river called Afghanistan, it was fine. But it could not last for ever. Once the "geostrategic 'current' became a 'rapid', the "stuntman" lost the balance. USA , today has its eyes focused on China. It no more sees Pakistan as a strategic partner. US focus is on South China Sea, where China is flexing its muscles. Thus orphaned Pakistan has fallen into the laps of China, who is exploiting her for own global objectives and interests. Pakistan can do anything which gives her control of Afghanistan, even at peril to her own interests- an emotional obsession of a nation gone crazy.
General Kiyani, former Chief of Pakistan Army, had once categorically stated that in any future dispensation for Afghanistan, Pakistan does not want any role for India. Pakistan had then advocated a patch up between USA and 'Good Afghan Taliban" so as to allow USA/ NATO to peacefully execute exit policy. But Pakistan played a double game hunting with the hound and running with the hare. Finally, USA priorities shifted to China, who was influencing Pakistan. USA understood and realised the pitfall of ignoring this double game of Pakistan and it has now tilted towards India. USA has openly stated that it would continue its presence in Afghanistan till 2020. The primary reason is Chinese presence in Balichistan and Gwador. This provides India ample opportunities to dig deep in Afghanistan.
Why does Pakistan want India to be excluded. Answer is very simple. As stated earlier, Indian presence in Afghanistan denies the very STRATEGIC DEPTH Pakistan seeks in a pliable Afghanistan. It therefore curtails its advantage of 'nuclear blackmail' of India in a conventional war. Its Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) nuclear strategy to use smaller yield nuclear weapons against Conventional Indian force has an inherent flaw that it would invite a full scale Indian nuclear response. General's of Pakistan Army think they can seek sanctuaries in Afghanistan in such an eventuality. This is why pliable regime in Afghanistan is very crucial in their scheme of things.
Further, the rugged and mountainous terrain of Afghanistan provides not only training grounds for the so called "STRATEGIC ASSETS" of Pakistan but they can be also kept outside the striking range of India both by air and ground operation. Pre-9/11, Pakistan had used Afghanistan for training Kashmiri militants. Unfortunately for Pakistan 9/11 turned tables on them.
Besides, Indian presence in Afghanistan provides India an opportunity to play similar dirty games in Waziristan, Swat, FATA and Baluchistan as does Pakistan in Indian Kashmir, Punjab and North East. These are her basic fears because it would not be able to use her strategic asset effectively. The cries about RAW are getting loud in Pakistani Media while they think ISI activities are legitimate . Has anyone told them that TIT FOR TAT is the known principle between two enemies. Pakistan knows that it would pay for its " Kashmir - Irrationality" if India digs into Afghanistan. Pakistani public too, does not realize that 2016 is not 1947; a lot of water has flown through Indus River since. Reality of 2016 does not dawn upon most Pakistanis. They continue to believe their selfish Generals. Prime Minister Narender Modi's reminder to Pakistan on 15 August 2016, from the ramparts of Red Fort is a warning which Pakistan must realize that WOM can be two way traffic, too.
Where does China fit in? It too does not want India anywhere near Afghanistan. The reasons are many. Pakistan portion of Balochistan is rich in oil and natural gas and also in mineral deposits such as Iron Ore, Coal, Gold, Copper, Zinc. QCCM would keep India away it will provide access to China to this mineral wealth. Most commentators think that other than access to warm water Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, China is interested in the rich mineral deposits which it can exploit once it gets her foot in. This is why CPEC .
CPEC agreement allows China to control the oil trade from Persian Gulf countries to rest of the world. Thus, it would become a great player in the region. Flow of oil and its regulation through Gawador port would affect many a world economies, particularly Asia and Africa. Besides, It cuts down a distance of over 12000 Kms for its oil tankers through Indian Ocean and various choke points on the sea lanes. In return , China has offered only three power plants which run with outmoded coal technology. The development of Gwador port is for its own benefit. Pakistan will be spending a huge amount for the protection of this corridor. It is a win win situation for China. Any interference here by India through her presence in Afghanistan, would affect her future designs of world domination.
It must be noted that 10-15000troops of China are already in Gilgit Hunza area under this agreement. In real terms Pakistan is handing over sovereignty of Baluchistan to China. This is also a major resentment of the local people. Military presence of China in GILGIT- HUNZA region, threatens, Ladakh in a double Chinese pincer to slice of Ladakh. India has to thus tie down China in Baluchistan.
It is these reasons stated above that QCCM agreement is taken care of by India and watch the developments in Afghan National Army. ISI of Pakistan and China will desperately try to throw off Ashraf Ghani Presidency. To conclude : India's presence in Afghanistan is a thorn in the flesh of Pakistan. It not only denies Pakistan her much desired "Strategic Depth" but also opens up an option for India to launch WOM (War by Other Means) into Pakistan''s tribal areas, as a tit for tat action for her Kashmir strategy. Besides, China and Pakistan are also worried about their CPEC ( China Pakistan Economic Corridor) programme which seeks $46 billion commitment by China to spend for the economic growth of a 3000 km Corridor running through Gilgit- Baltistan ( POK); Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtoonqkhwa (KPK) to port of Gwador on the Persisn Gulf. Thus, control of Afghanistan is paramount in the scheme of this QCCM pact. A military coup by compromised Afghan National Army might be attempted in next eight to twelve months. India be warned.
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