HYBRID WARS OF 21st CENTURY

DESIGNER CUM HYBRID WARS VIS A VIS OLD CONVENTIONAL WARS OF 20th CENTURY!

There is a raging debate amongst veterans and military circles, whether army should be employed in Insurgency environments or it should be left free to prepare for a future conventional war? Such a question smacks of the hollowness of the understanding of emerging form of future military conflict. Manpower heavy armies with dud weapons and ammunition, serviced by unintelligent soldiers, are the sitting ducks for the “Designer and Customised wars “ of the future. Weapons of mass destructions (WsMD) have and revolutions in Military warfare ( RMA) have changed the very concept of war in a “Nuclear Zone”.

What conventional war are we talking about? In the South Asia context Hybrid war, as a major component of “ Designer War” is the only war India is going to fight in the next half a century or so. Hybrid war is what you might call insurgency or Terrorism or proxy war or fifth generation warfare.

The wars of 20th Century or of Bangla -Desh-type are almost redundant in the context of the Indian subcontinent . At best, Land wars will remain confined to border skirmishes, be it China or Pakistan.

What conventional war , Indian army was waiting to fight if India was disintegrated through this Hybrid war machinations of our enemies within and without. Please note INTERNAL ENEMY is more dangerous than the external enemy. Indian army must prepare and fight it with all its might.

While on this, I might remind you of great Indian thinker and strategist, Chanakya or Kautilya . He had stated that a nation has four kind of dangers to its existence. They are ;-

— One , that emanates from outside and abetted by out side . It is external aggression or attack.

— Two , one that emanated from outside but abetted from inside. It is treason by selfish and greedy people.

—- Three, one that emanated from inside and abetted from inside. It is a revolution against the king or state.

—- Four , and most dangerous threat is ,one that emanated from inside and abetted from outside. It is Secessionist and separatist movement.,

According to Chanakya it is the “Fourth Threat” that disintegrates a nation. And India is facing this problem , not only in J& K but North east too. Do not forget Maoists/ Naxalite movement in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, MP, Bihar, Andhra , Bengal, and so on. They have the active support of China and Pakistan too.

Do not forgot the Global Times ( Chinese online Newspaper) article of 2009 , which suggested that India ought to be broken into 20-30 states. And this is why Hybrid war, what you conveniently call insurgency, was engulfing the entire nation. This is the war Indian army must gird up her loins to fight it.

Forget conventional wars of 19th and 20th Century —- the “zone of conflict” is now extending to space —- with Laser weapons, drones, missiles and WMDs gaining importance , the combat zones have not only enlarged themselves but they have been customised. Therefore, be rationale in assessment. Let us not be mechanical in our thinking and apply templates of the past wars on the military conflicts of future.

You see, what is being done in the army by the present hierarchy was to prepare her for a future military conflict in a “nuclearised” environs of the subcontinent. Pakistan’s FULL SPECTRUM DETERRENCE( FSD) is being countered by India’s COLD START DOCTRINE( CSD) . In other wards, to counter the threat of the Tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) of Pakistan, as is being propounded in her FSD doctrine, India needs highly light-weight but mobile and self sustaining mission - oriented Task forces to bounce off the border in a short notice and not only attain her objective but also self- sustain itself . This is why Indian army has been locating her forces in the military Cantonment near the border. It gives her a flexibility to scramble her mission oriented Task forces at a short notice.

To be precise, Indian army is readying herself for a “Designer War” of the future —- which has three components —- INFORMATION WARFARE ; HYBRID or FIFTH GENERATION WARFARE and finally , SURGICAL OPERATIONS to further the gains of Hybrid and Information warfares. Therefore, what is being visualised is an assessment that land battles would remain confined to border skirmishes, such as Kargil-99 or DokaLa-2017. In the same breath, it is being assessed that the real wars, in future, would be fought in the space, seas and the hinterland of the enemy. USA is already thinking of engaging China through a SPACE FORCE, as has been recently pronounced by her 45th President, Donald Trump. Space ships, laser weapons, satellites, naval flotilla and electronics would add new dimension to the war.

The purpose of the DESIGNER and CUSTOMISED WAR , on one hand, is to soften and weaken the enemy from inside through Hybrid operations , such as militancy, terrorism and insurgency and and then, on the other hand, carry out Surgical Strike through “space and seas” to bring about the final collapse of your adversary.

In so doing, Hybrid war is the biggest component of the Designer war. This is the diktat of the Nuclearised environments . Hybrid war seeks to exploit internal vulnerability of a nation through “Irregular Soldiers” , call them militants, insurgents, non- state actors, terrorists , fifth columnists and so on. “Triggers” and “Sparks” are used in the form of support to separatist movements . This is preceded by a Information warfare to create favourable international public opinion.

Therefore, it is a considered opinion that proposed changes in the army by the present army chief is a first step towards the gearing up for a military role which would need light weight forces to implement CSD in a FSD scenario. In the long run, it would save the army from a “Future Shock” which can lead to a military disaster like the manpower heavy army of Saddam Hussein of erstwhile president of Iraq. Remember, in a modern military conflict, what matters is quality and not quantity.

Finally, we must also realise that we have been in a state of war since Pakistan - sponsored AZADI MOVEMENT in J&K and Khalistan Movement of Punjab. Let us stop calling it Insurgency or terrorism and then dismiss it as a law and order problem. Call it the modern Conventional war, which India would have to fight. Therefore, army be better prepared to deal with it and reorient herself. In such a war , you do not Artillery guns and Armoured Tanks but light weight mobile forces. Dread the day Terrorist or the Separatist organisations lay their hands on TNWs—-!possibility exists. Therefore let army reorient herself . The resistance to change is avoidable. Change must come through visualisation if the future well in advance rather than as a reaction, when it happens. I give full marks to General Bipin Rawat to initiate this change in anticipation of future developments in military affairs.