SINO-INDIAN COLD WAR: AZHAR MASOOD VERSUS DOLKUN ISA
Azhar Masood, is a Pakistani national, heading terrorist Organisation, Lashkar-E-Taiyba ( LeT) and Jamaat-Ud-Dawa. These terrorist organizations are engaged in terrorist operations in India. Pakistan military lexicon recognizes them as " Strategic Assets". India holds Azhar Masood responsible for terrorist attack on Pathankot Airforce base on 02 January 2016. India also accuses him of Mumbai 26/11 in 2008. Despite all the evidences provided by India, he roams freely in Pakistan, though put under house arrest. Recently, India had approached UN Security Council to declare him a "wanted Terrorist" . But this was blocked by China in a secret ballot, using her Veto Power.
Why did China make this move? China has serious problem in its Eastern most autonomous province Xinjiang, also called Sinkiang. This province has Muslim Majority, who is wanting an independent East Turkistan state to be carved out of this autonomous region of China. The Muslim population is around 51.6% of the province population. There are two types of Muslim ethnicities, one is of "Uyghurs" of Turkick origin and other "Hui" is more closer to Majority Han population of China. The separatist movement is headed by Uyghurs segment of the population under the banner of WUC (World Uyghurs Congress) headed by Dolikun Isa. China has tried her best to suppress the Uyghurs movement through force. It now wants to try it through the good services of Azhar Masood , who has good links with Taliban and Al Qaida. WUC is also supported by Al Qaida and more recently by ISIS. Besides, significance of Xinjiang province lay in the fact that it provides access to its area of economic interest around Gwador Port of Pakistan on the Arabian Sea. The famous Karakoram Highway oases through this. Besides, Xinjiang provinces borders India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan . Its vulnerability becomes more acute if Uyghurs movement gains strength.
Annoyed with China for blocking its move in UN Security Council, India has made a counter move by issuing Visa to head Of WUC , Mr. Dolikun Isa. He is coming to meet Tibetan spiritual leader His Highness Dalai Lama. It is obvious, they are NOT going to exchange spiritual messages. Both Tibetans and Uyghurs are victims of Chinese oppressions. Tibet, Xinjiang and Outer Magolia are China's three major internal vulnerabilities, which are waiting to be exploited. Allowing Dolikun to visit Dalai Lama, India is sending a strong message of her TIT FOR TAT policy. This is the first time India has made a significant counter move. China's bullying of India for exploration of Oil in South China Sea in collaboration with Vietnam was earlier rebuffed. Similar Border excursion by China in Leh has been strongly opposed by Indian military though not in strength.
The is move by India should tell China that India is ready to stand up to her. It is a known fact that China has always seen India as a weakling. This notion has existed since 1962. No wonders, Chinese official Government news paper, Global Times had sarcastically observed a few days back that India was like a beautiful woman, who was always booing strongmen like USA and China. This was done when Indian ministers, Mrs Sushma Swaraj, External affairs and Manohar Parrirkar, Defence Minister were visiting China. This does reveal China's over confidence in herself and perceptions of a weak India. Global Times, is the same news paper which published an article in 2009, later withdrawn, which talked of breaking up of India into 20-30 states through a soft war. Maoists and Naxalites insurgency in India ever since has gained momentum. There is a tell- tale evidence of Chinese involvement in this. India has to tell China that you too have similar vulnerabilities in Tibet, Outer Mangolia and Xinjiang.
China’s aggressive posture towards India and her hectic activities of 'string of pearls' policy in the Indian ocean, rail-road construction in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) along with positioning of its troops in the FCNA of Pakistan, some two years back, is a sure indicator of her future intentions about India. On April 15, 2013, some 50 PLA troops intruded into Indian territory, up to 19 KMs in Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) Sector of Ladakh and established a tented camp. This was clear provocation and NO friendly act. Though matter was resolved amicably, but it was at a great cost to India, where she had to accept Chinese terms to dismantle Indian look-out post in Chumar. Thereafter a number of times China had intruded into Indian territory and tried to dominate it. But India reacted responsibly, a diplomatic term for "weakness".
In all assessments, therefore, the threat to Indian security from China is considered paramount. In an interview, to editor-in-chief, Mr. Raj Chengappa, of ‘The Tribune’, a North India daily from Chandigarh, published on October 17, 2010, General VK Singh, then, Chief of army staff of Indian Army, while talking of China, had rightly observed that notwithstanding the present peace on the Chinese borders, there was a need to be vigilant as the intentions can change when the capabilities grow. In other words, peace or no peace, Chinese threat cannot be discounted, particularly when you view it in terms of its latest activities around India.
China had been following a policy of encirclement of India both by sea and land. Its 'string of pearls' spreads from Gwador in Pakistan, through Hamanbantota in Sri Lanka to deep water port at Sittwe in Myanmar. It would control the sea lanes to India in the Indian Ocean. Besides, China had been busy in making foray into South Asian nations around India. India has Pakistan on her western borders, whose military sees India not only her enemy number one but also the only evil in the world. The Maoist Nepal, despite temporary setback, also looks to China as a friend, philosopher and a guide. China has also cultivated Bangla Desh and sees it as a major anti-India plank for seeding and supporting separatist movements in India’s North East states. It supported Sri Lanka with weapons and equipment, during its final war with LTTE in the year 2008-09. What is worse is that China has been supporting the military regime in Myanmar to go nuclear through covert assistance from North Korea. If it happens then, India would be fully flanked in the North, East and the West by nuclear states. It would be very dangerous situation for India.
Thus, China’s over all military strategy against India has been four pronged:-
(a) Contain and isolate India by making her neighbors hostile and unfriendly.
(b) Outsource its low cost proxy war to Pakistan and Maoists/Naxalites by:-
(i) Supporting and encouraging internal Insurgencies brewing in India
and thus break-up India through implosion.
(ii) Using Pakistan to the maximum to retard India’s military and economic
growth.
(c) Dominate sea-lanes around India through a ‘String of Pearls’ policy.
(d) Befool Indian leadership and Indian public through overt goodwill gestures
in the interregnum period.
To counter above Chinese strategy, India must consider her self equal to China in all respects. An aggressive rather than begging approach needs to be adopted. China must be reminded of Nathula -1967 incident. Further, India must develop intimate relations with countries hostile to China and develop this into a strategic partnership. Vietnam, Japan and Australia must become important links in this partnership. ASEAN needs to be explored for economic and military ties. Secondly, India must make all out efforts to reduce Chinese influence in her neighborhood. Countries like SriLanka, Nepal, Bangladesh Desh ought to be won over as part of an economic development program. If possible, engage Pakistan through Afghanistan. Let Baluchistan, Sindh and KPK become its thorn in the flesh. The way to deny use of Pakistan by China is through WOM ( War By Other Means). Having done this, India must take the WOM inside Chinese borders through Tibet, Outer Mangolia and Xinjiang. Fuel Uyghurs insurgency actively as does China in case of North East and Maoists/ Naxalites movement. Finally, relations with Russia must be strengthened. USA may be sought as a partner but it is an unreliable customer. It must not be totally depended. It has history of leaving friends midway to their own fate. Korea to Vietnam to Iraq, Afghanistan, even Pakistan and Kosovo , story is same of US betrayal.
It is imperative for India to be prepared for the worst. And the worst is when internal and external foes join hands to balkanize her. The moral and material support to Maoists and J&K militants from China and Pakistan, respectively, give enough indications as to what India must expect from her external foes. India doesn’t have to not only develop ability to fight on three fronts simultaneously but also be mentally tuned to face such an eventuality. Half the job would be done, once India accepts this as a reality of the near-future. Sometimes preparing for war serves as a good deterrent to the adversaries. Preparing meticulously, with worst scenario in mind, often lays the foundation of victory. And Modi government has made a good move by giving visa to Dolikun Isa.
(a) Contain and isolate India by making her neighbors hostile and unfriendly.
(b) Outsource its low cost proxy war to Pakistan and Maoists/Naxalites by:-
(i) Supporting and encouraging internal Insurgencies brewing in India
and thus break-up India through implosion.
(ii) Using Pakistan to the maximum to retard India’s military and economic
growth.
(c) Dominate sea-lanes around India through a ‘String of Pearls’ policy.
(d) Befool Indian leadership and Indian public through overt goodwill gestures
in the interregnum period.
To counter above Chinese strategy, India must consider her self equal to China in all respects. An aggressive rather than begging approach needs to be adopted. China must be reminded of Nathula -1967 incident. Further, India must develop intimate relations with countries hostile to China and develop this into a strategic partnership. Vietnam, Japan and Australia must become important links in this partnership. ASEAN needs to be explored for economic and military ties. Secondly, India must make all out efforts to reduce Chinese influence in her neighborhood. Countries like SriLanka, Nepal, Bangladesh Desh ought to be won over as part of an economic development program. If possible, engage Pakistan through Afghanistan. Let Baluchistan, Sindh and KPK become its thorn in the flesh. The way to deny use of Pakistan by China is through WOM ( War By Other Means). Having done this, India must take the WOM inside Chinese borders through Tibet, Outer Mangolia and Xinjiang. Fuel Uyghurs insurgency actively as does China in case of North East and Maoists/ Naxalites movement. Finally, relations with Russia must be strengthened. USA may be sought as a partner but it is an unreliable customer. It must not be totally depended. It has history of leaving friends midway to their own fate. Korea to Vietnam to Iraq, Afghanistan, even Pakistan and Kosovo , story is same of US betrayal.
It is imperative for India to be prepared for the worst. And the worst is when internal and external foes join hands to balkanize her. The moral and material support to Maoists and J&K militants from China and Pakistan, respectively, give enough indications as to what India must expect from her external foes. India doesn’t have to not only develop ability to fight on three fronts simultaneously but also be mentally tuned to face such an eventuality. Half the job would be done, once India accepts this as a reality of the near-future. Sometimes preparing for war serves as a good deterrent to the adversaries. Preparing meticulously, with worst scenario in mind, often lays the foundation of victory. And Modi government has made a good move by giving visa to Dolikun Isa.
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